So the Scarlets and the Warriors bear the hopes of a nation this weekend.
In an attempt to un-muddy the waters, here is the qualification scenario explained…
POOL 4
MAXIMUM POINTS FOR POOL WINNERS: Llanelli Scarlets 24, Northampton Saints 23. CURRENT TRIES: Llanelli Scarlets 15, Northampton Saints 13.
Llanelli Scarlets need a win or a draw at Franklin’s Gardens to reach the quarter-finals. If they lose, even with a bonus point, then they are likely to struggle to qualify. As for the Saints, they must make home advantage pay with a victory over the Scarlets to make the last eight. If they lose, even with a bonus point, they will be out.
Agen and The Borders are out.
POOL 6
MAXIMUM POINTS FOR POOL WINNERS: London Wasps 24, Perpignan 20, Celtic Warriors 20
CURRENT TRIES: London Wasps 18, Perpignan 13, Celtic Warriors 7.
The tightest Pool of the lot, with three teams still mathematically in the hunt for the title. In fact, all three could end up on 20 points on Sunday if the Warriors pick up a bonus point and win in Calvisano, Perpignan do the same at home against Wasps and Wasps get a bonus point in defeat. That would mean the decision on who comes top would first be made on the number of Match Points scored in the games between the three teams. After that it goes to the number of tries scored in the matches between the three teams (Wasps v Warriors 5-5 pts, 1-1 tries; Perpignan v Warriors 6-5 pts, 4-2 tries; Perpignan v Wasps 0-4 pts, 1-3 tries). One thing is certain. If London Wasps win or draw in Perpignan then they will win the Pool. If Perpignan win with a bonus point, and stop Wasps from taking a bonus point, then they will win the Pool even if the Warriors snap up five points in Italy because of their superior Match Points and Tries rating over the Welshmen. The Warriors will win the Pool if they take a bonus point in winning in Italy and Perpignan beat Wasps without either side getting a bonus point.
Calvisano are out.
